Analysts expect Nifty to touch 6000 if a deal comes through
Fingers across global financial markets remained crossed over the weekend as US lawmakers struggled to arrive at an elevenths spending cuts worth $600 billion,the so-called fiscal cliff,from taking effect at the beginning of 2013.Back home,stock experts did not rule out a volatile session from the week beginning Monday until US lawmakers reached a deal on a tax hike threshold and spending cuts that could affect two million longterm unemployed individualistically make an announcement around 12:30 am IST Monday on whether negotiations and Democrats in the Senate had borne fruit.
A deal,which market experts eventually cobble together,could drive up Indian stocks.However, if negotiations fail and the US does in deed go oversimplification markets could correct up to 4% in the first week of the New Year,they warned.Any reasonable deal over avoiding the cliff could result in a relief rally in the global financial markets till at least the fine print becomes clear, said UR Bhat,MD, Recapitalization, an investment advisory company of the London-based Dalton Group.I think 6000 for the Nifty could be a probable target in that event.If,however, newsworthiness counters of a deal our markets could open weak on Monday and reflect the 150-plus fall in the Dow on Friday.In the event theres no agreement over several days ahead,a 3-4 % hit cannot be ruled out next week.Deal or no deal,the US is terribly over-indebted and needs to urgently rein in spending, Bhat added.
Some experts like G Chokkalingam,chief investment officer, Centrum Wealth Management,believed that a deal,even if deferred by a day or two into the New Year,was inevitable.This,along with some amount of buying by domestic institutional investors like mutual funds to propup their NAV son the markets last day this year,will prevent a steep decline Monday.There are good chances of Nifty gaining 100-odd points and the Sensex around 300 points this week if US talks on the cliff fructify, said Chokkalingam. Bhat feels US lawmakers would eventually compromise on taxing thesalaried. Obama,who has been adamantly insisting on raising taxes for families earning more than $250,000 a year to contain the US fiscal deficit,is likely,according to a few western media reports,to settle on $400,000 as the threshold while Republicans,who are making spending cuts a precondition for any compromise,may agree to hold spending cuts in a few areas,like a dole for the long-term unemployed.
However,some market experts believe that Indian stock markets are in a better position to withstand external pressures,given the fact that though economic growth has slowed from earlier 8% to an expected 5-6 % rate FY13,it still remains higher than that in the developed world.Also,as monetary easing continues in the US,Europe and Japan,foreign money,will continue to find its way into emerging markets like India.These coupled with a softening interest rate cycle,moderating inflation and higher corporate profitability is expected to bode well for Indian stocks.Even if markets were to fall on a crisis of resolving the fiscal cliff,I think it would be a great opportunity for cherry-picking, said Saurabh Mukherjea,head of equitiesat Ambit Capital.
However,he also believes a last-minute deal in the US will avert a fiscal cliff.The Sensex has risen by 26% in 2012,driven by FII inflows of $24.2 billion,the second highest in a year so far since the record flows of $29 billion in 2010.This has made the local stock market the worlds third-best performer after Thailands SET and Germanys Dax. However,till the writing is clear onthewall, some have advised clients not to initiate any fresh positions.Markets are unlikely to find a trend till US lawmakers arrive at a deal over the cliff, said Aseem Dhru,MD & CEO,HDFC Securities.No fresh positions is our advice to clients till we know which way markets are headed.